2026 NFL · Week 5

Week 5 D/ST rankings and streamers

Team defenses ranked by projected fantasy points. The biggest driver is how many points Vegas expects the opponent to score; sacks and turnovers, both how often a defense creates them and how often the opposing offense gives them up, add the rest.

Streamers: rostered in under half of leagues

CIN @MIA8.6 proj · 36% rostered

JAX PHI8.6 proj · 45% rostered

DAL TB7.6 proj · 25% rostered

NYJ CLE7.4 proj · 18% rostered

WAS NYG7.1 proj · 9% rostered

Tap any column header to sort.

#	Defense	Opp	Proj	Opp implied	Sacks/g	Takeaways/g	Season pts/g	Rostered	Next week
1	HOU	@TEN	8.9	15.5	3.3	1.0	4.8	88%	JAX (6.0)
2	CIN	@MIA	8.6	17.8	3.0	1.4	9.5	36%	bye
3	JAX	PHI	8.6	17.8	2.3	1.9	9.8	45%	HOU (7.4)
4	MIN	@NO	8.1	20.5	3.6	1.6	12.5	88%	bye
5	DEN	@LAC	8.1	19.5	2.7	1.1	7.2	79%	SEA (6.0)
6	DAL	TB	7.6	19.5	1.4	0.5	1.5	25%	GB (4.9)
7	NYJ	CLE	7.4	18.5	2.0	0.7	5.2	18%	NE (6.3)
8	PIT	IND	7.3	21.0	2.6	1.7	8.8	93%	TB (8.8)
9	WAS	NYG	7.1	20.0	2.0	1.0	4.2	9%	SF (5.0)
10	CLE	@NYJ	6.8	21.0	3.0	1.0	5.2	41%	BAL (6.1)
11	CHI	@GB	6.8	21.2	2.4	1.5	7.0	35%	ATL (6.5)
12	NE	LV	6.8	21.0	2.0	1.2	7.8	49%	NYJ (6.2)
13	ATL	BAL	6.7	20.0	2.3	0.9	4.0	2%	CHI (5.3)
14	LV	@NE	6.4	24.5	2.7	1.8	9.0	14%	BUF (5.0)
15	NO	MIN	6.4	22.0	2.2	0.9	2.0	3%	NYG (6.6)
16	DET	@ARI	6.2	25.0	3.5	1.0	4.2	38%	bye
17	SEA	SF	6.0	22.0	2.8	1.7	8.0	97%	DEN (7.0)
18	IND	@PIT	5.8	23.5	2.3	0.8	3.2	2%	TEN (7.4)
19	LAC	DEN	5.7	23.0	2.5	1.8	6.2	18%	KC (4.6)
20	BAL	@ATL	5.6	23.5	1.8	1.2	4.8	80%	CLE (6.3)
21	LA	BUF	5.3	26.0	2.1	1.0	5.0	82%	ARI (8.0)
22	GB	CHI	5.1	24.2	2.4	0.9	3.0	21%	DAL (4.5)
23	NYG	@WAS	5.1	23.5	1.3	1.6	7.2	8%	NO (6.4)
24	TEN	HOU	5.1	23.0	2.2	0.6	4.0	2%	IND (4.8)
25	SF	@SEA	4.7	24.5	1.4	0.8	5.0	43%	WAS (5.1)
26	MIA	CIN	4.6	24.8	1.4	0.9	1.8	1%	bye
27	PHI	@JAX	4.3	24.8	1.5	0.7	2.2	60%	CAR (6.2)
28	BUF	@LA	4.2	28.5	2.4	1.2	4.5	32%	LV (6.3)
29	ARI	DET	3.5	29.5	1.9	1.4	3.5	2%	LA (2.8)
30	TB	@DAL	3.4	28.0	1.7	1.1	5.0	18%	PIT (6.7)

Teams on bye this week aren't listed. Opp implied = the opponent's Vegas implied points. Rostered % from ESPN leagues (updated 2026-10-07).

How D/ST projections work

Scoring: Yahoo default: sack 1, interception 2, fumble recovery 2, defensive or return TD 6, safety 2, blocked kick 2, and points allowed (0 = 10, 1–6 = 7, 7–13 = 4, 14–20 = 1, 21–27 = 0, 28–34 = −1, 35+ = −4).
Model: A regression fit on every defense-game from 2018 to 2025: the opponent's Vegas implied total and the spread, plus season-to-date sacks and takeaways for the defense and sacks and giveaways for the offense it faces. Early in the season, last season's rates fill in.
Accuracy: Tested on 5 seasons (2021–2025) using only what was known before each game: streaming each week's top 5 averaged 9.2 points, versus 7.5 for picking by season average. Error per defense-week: 4.28 points (4.56 by season average). Defense scoring is noisy; Vegas lines carry most of what can be predicted.