2026 NFL · Week 5

Week 5 start/sit

Who to trust and who to bench this week, with the reasons. Starts are players outside the every-week locks who project as starters; sits are usual starters whose outlook is worse than normal. Every call needs at least two reasons pointing the same way.

This week's injury reports aren't out yet. Injury-related reasons (and teammates opening up targets) are added automatically as reports come out, Wednesday to Friday. Check back before kickoff.

QB

Start

Matthew Stafford QB · LA vs BUF

Strong start

18.6 proj8.9–26.5 range20% boomQB4 this week · usually QB19

Projected for 18.6 points, 3.2 above his season average
BUF allows the 4th-most points to QBs (+27% vs average)
Vegas expects LA to score 28.5 points, 3rd-most this week

Jacoby Brissett QB · ARI vs DET

Strong start

17.8 proj8.0–28.6 range23% boomQB7 this week · usually QB22

Projected for 17.8 points, 3.0 above his season average
DET allows the most points to QBs (+66% vs average)
Vegas expects ARI to score 25.0 points, 6th-most this week

Sit

Tyler Shough QB · NO vs MIN

Confident sit

14.5 proj5.8–25.2 range11% boomQB15 this week · usually QB6

Projected for 14.5 points, 6.8 below his season average
MIN allows the fewest points to QBs (-37% vs average)

Kirk Cousins QB · LV @ NE

Lean sit

14.2 proj4.8–23.8 range8% boomQB20 this week · usually QB10

Projected for 14.2 points, 5.5 below his season average
NE allows the 7th-fewest points to QBs (-17% vs average)

Brock Purdy QB · SF @ SEA

Confident sit

16.1 proj7.5–28.1 range14% boomQB10 this week · usually QB2

Projected for 16.1 points, 9.0 below his season average
SEA allows the 2nd-fewest points to QBs (-31% vs average)

RB

Start

Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA vs SF

Strong start

10.9 proj3.0–20.9 range12% boomRB19 this week · usually RB33

SF allows the 8th-most points to RBs (+19% vs average)
Vegas expects SEA to score 25.2 points, 5th-most this week
His opportunity share is up 12.0 points over the last two games (30.8%)

Braelon Allen RB · NYJ vs CLE

Lean start

10.4 proj2.4–18.6 range17% boomRB21 this week · usually RB42

Projected for 10.4 points, 3.9 above his season average
His opportunity share is up 20.4 points over the last two games (34.0%)
Playing 38 more snap-share points than earlier in the season

Working against it: CLE allows the 5th-fewest points to RBs (-22% vs average)

Jaylen Warren RB · PIT vs IND

Lean start

15.7 proj6.2–26.9 range28% boomRB7 this week · usually RB16

His opportunity share is up 13.0 points over the last two games (39.3%)
Playing 40 more snap-share points than earlier in the season
28% chance of a big game (ceiling 26.9)

Aaron Jones RB · MIN @ NO

Confident start

13.4 proj4.7–23.5 range19% boomRB13 this week · usually RB18

NO allows the most points to RBs (+57% vs average)
His opportunity share is up 10.0 points over the last two games (45.8%)
Playing 13 more snap-share points than earlier in the season

Sit

Brian Robinson RB · ATL vs BAL

Lean sit

6.8 proj2.5–18.6 range10% boomRB37 this week · usually RB21

Projected for 6.8 points, 5.3 below his season average
Running hot: scoring 12.1 a game on usage worth 7.7. Expect some regression

Alvin Kamara RB · NO vs MIN

Strong sit

8.2 proj2.0–19.1 range10% boomRB28 this week · usually RB24

Projected for 8.2 points, 3.5 below his season average
MIN allows the fewest points to RBs (-34% vs average)
His opportunity share is down 7.4 points over the last two games (17.9%)

WR

Start

Courtland Sutton WR · DEN @ LAC

Lean start

10.1 proj1.2–18.0 range8% boomWR27 this week · usually WR96

Projected for 10.1 points, 5.7 above his season average
Unlucky so far: his targets and carries are worth 10.4 points a game, but he's scored 4.4. That gap usually closes

George Pickens WR · DAL vs TB

Confident start

13.9 proj4.5–25.3 range32% boomWR10 this week · usually WR40

Projected for 13.9 points, 3.8 above his season average
Vegas expects DAL to score 28.5 points, 2nd-most this week
Unlucky so far: his targets and carries are worth 12.8 points a game, but he's scored 10.1. That gap usually closes

Working against it: TB allows the 5th-fewest points to WRs (-21% vs average)

Jameson Williams WR · DET @ ARI

Lean start

12.0 proj3.1–22.6 range20% boomWR16 this week · usually WR45

ARI allows the 6th-most points to WRs (+18% vs average)
Vegas expects DET to score 29.5 points, most this week

Michael Wilson WR · ARI vs DET

Strong start

15.2 proj5.0–25.8 range24% boomWR6 this week · usually WR20

DET allows the 2nd-most points to WRs (+35% vs average)
Vegas expects ARI to score 25.0 points, 6th-most this week
His target share is up 12.6 points over the last two games (35.5%)

Malik Nabers WR · NYG @ WAS

Lean start

10.8 proj3.3–20.8 range14% boomWR19 this week · usually WR31

WAS allows the 4th-most points to WRs (+24% vs average)
Playing 14 more snap-share points than earlier in the season

Sit

Kalif Raymond WR · CHI @ GB

Strong sit

6.2 proj1.5–17.6 range7% boomWR55 this week · usually WR27

Projected for 6.2 points, 6.0 below his season average
His target share is down 12.1 points over the last two games (13.6%)
Running hot: scoring 12.2 a game on usage worth 9.0. Expect some regression

Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF @ SEA

Confident sit

10.2 proj3.6–20.4 range9% boomWR26 this week · usually WR17

Projected for 10.2 points, 4.3 below his season average
SEA allows the 2nd-fewest points to WRs (-33% vs average)
His target share is down 9.5 points over the last two games (10.3%)

Working against it: Playing 20 more snap-share points than earlier in the season

Mike Evans WR · SF @ SEA Q

Confident sit

9.7 proj2.3–18.2 range10% boomWR31 this week · usually WR26

Projected for 9.7 points, 2.9 below his season average
SEA allows the 2nd-fewest points to WRs (-33% vs average)
Playing 18 fewer snap-share points than earlier in the season

Working against it: His target share is up 7.9 points over the last two games (25.4%)

Denzel Boston WR · CLE @ NYJ

Confident sit

10.2 proj3.4–20.5 range13% boomWR25 this week · usually WR22

Projected for 10.2 points, 3.6 below his season average
Vegas expects only 18.5 points from CLE, 4th-fewest this week
Running hot: scoring 13.4 a game on usage worth 10.2. Expect some regression

TE

Start

T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN @ NO

Confident start

9.9 proj2.6–20.4 range23% boomTE7 this week · usually TE12

NO allows the 7th-most points to TEs (+32% vs average)
His target share is up 6.3 points over the last two games (27.7%)
Playing 16 more snap-share points than earlier in the season

Sit

No regular starters with a strong case to sit.

How the calls are made

Projection and range: A model trained on 2018–2024 and tested on 2025 projects each player's median, floor (10th percentile) and ceiling (90th percentile), plus his chance of a big game. On 2025 it was off by 5.1 points per player-week on average, versus 5.5 for season averages.
Matchup: Fantasy points the opponent allows to the position, compared with the league average.
Vegas: The team's implied point total from the betting line. High-scoring games mean more fantasy points to go around.
Usage trend: Change in snap share and target or opportunity share over the last two games.
Luck: Expected fantasy points: what a player's targets and carries are usually worth, based on depth and field position. Players far below it tend to bounce back; players far above it tend to cool off.
Injuries and weather: Teammates ruled out (more volume to go around), the player's own status, and wind or snow at kickoff.

Starters are based on a 12-team PPR league: top 12 QBs, 24 RBs, 30 WRs and 12 TEs. These are model-driven calls, not guarantees. Check final injury news before kickoff. See how our calls and projections have done →