2026 NFL · Projection accuracy
How accurate are our projections?
Every week we grade our projections against what actually happened, and compare them with the simplest alternative: each player's season average. Most sites never publish this. We do it every week, good or bad.
Week by week
| Week | Players | Our miss | Season avg miss | In range | Boom: predicted vs actual | Start/sit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 retro | 227 | 5.11 | 7.11 | 81.1% | 12.3% / 14.1% | – |
| 3 retro | 227 | 5.04 | 5.93 | 80.6% | 11.9% / 12.8% | – |
| 4 retro | 228 | 5.3 | 5.88 | 83.3% | 12.2% / 12.7% | – |
How we grade
"Miss" is the average difference between projected and actual PPR points, across every ranked QB, RB, WR and TE who played. Projections are saved before each week's first kickoff and graded after the games. Weeks marked retro are from before the scorecard existed: the same model run using only data available before that week, which is a fair test but not a live one. "In range" is the share of players who finished between their floor and ceiling; it's designed to be about 80%. Live start/sit grading begins with week 5.