2026 NFL · Through week 4
Buy low, sell high: expected fantasy points
What each player's targets and carries are usually worth, based on how far downfield and how close to the end zone they came, compared with what he actually scored. Usage is sticky; touchdowns and big plays aren't. The gap tends to close.
Buy low: due to bounce back
Scoring well below what their usage is worth.
| Player | xFP/g | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson WR · ARI | 20.9 | 14.2 | -6.7 |
| Courtland Sutton WR · DEN | 10.4 | 4.4 | -6.0 |
| Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 15.0 | 9.6 | -5.3 |
| De'Von Achane RB · MIA | 13.2 | 8.2 | -5.0 |
| J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN | 9.9 | 5.2 | -4.7 |
| Xavier Hutchinson WR · HOU | 11.6 | 7.2 | -4.3 |
| DK Metcalf WR · PIT | 14.9 | 10.8 | -4.1 |
| Jared Wayne WR · HOU | 7.6 | 3.5 | -4.1 |
| Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | 14.0 | 10.0 | -4.0 |
| Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 22.5 | 18.5 | -4.0 |
| Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL | 9.7 | 5.8 | -3.9 |
| Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE | 15.9 | 12.1 | -3.8 |
| Quentin Johnston WR · LAC | 8.2 | 4.5 | -3.7 |
| DeMario Douglas WR · NE | 7.8 | 4.3 | -3.5 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS | 11.1 | 7.7 | -3.4 |
Sell high: running hot
Scoring well above what their usage is worth.
| Player | xFP/g | Actual | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 12.4 | 22.4 | +10.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 19.8 | 29.0 | +9.3 |
| CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 21.2 | 27.5 | +6.3 |
| George Kittle TE · SF | 10.1 | 16.1 | +6.0 |
| Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 20.8 | 26.4 | +5.6 |
| Mike Gesicki TE · CIN | 10.0 | 14.8 | +4.8 |
| Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | 14.9 | 19.8 | +4.8 |
| Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | 9.8 | 14.3 | +4.5 |
| Brian Robinson RB · ATL | 7.7 | 12.1 | +4.5 |
| Travis Kelce TE · KC | 8.8 | 13.2 | +4.4 |
| Drake London WR · ATL | 10.2 | 14.3 | +4.2 |
| Christian Watson WR · GB | 15.2 | 19.3 | +4.1 |
| Kyren Williams RB · LA | 19.0 | 22.9 | +3.9 |
| Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | 8.2 | 12.0 | +3.8 |
| Tyquan Thornton WR · KC | 7.5 | 11.2 | +3.7 |
Every RB, WR and TE by expected fantasy points
Tap any column header to sort.
| Player | G | Tgt/g | Car/g | xFP/g | Actual/g | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB · DET | 4 | 7.0 | 20.0 | 25.9 | 29.3 | +3.4 |
| Kenneth Walker III RB · KC | 4 | 4.8 | 21.8 | 24.4 | 27.5 | +3.1 |
| Ashton Jeanty RB · LV | 4 | 6.0 | 19.5 | 22.5 | 18.5 | -4.0 |
| Chris Olave WR · NO | 4 | 12.0 | 0.0 | 21.6 | 22.5 | +0.9 |
| CeeDee Lamb WR · DAL | 4 | 11.5 | 0.5 | 21.2 | 27.5 | +6.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR · DET | 4 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 22.8 | +1.8 |
| Michael Wilson WR · ARI | 4 | 11.0 | 0.0 | 20.9 | 14.2 | -6.7 |
| Javonte Williams RB · DAL | 4 | 4.2 | 15.5 | 20.8 | 20.4 | -0.4 |
| Bijan Robinson RB · ATL | 4 | 4.5 | 21.2 | 20.8 | 26.4 | +5.6 |
| Trey McBride TE · ARI | 4 | 11.5 | 0.0 | 20.4 | 17.3 | -3.1 |
| Derrick Henry RB · BAL | 4 | 1.8 | 22.2 | 20.2 | 22.7 | +2.5 |
| Christian McCaffrey RB · SF | 4 | 5.5 | 12.5 | 20.0 | 18.5 | -1.5 |
| Jonathan Taylor RB · IND | 4 | 3.8 | 21.5 | 20.0 | 22.0 | +2.1 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR · SEA | 4 | 10.5 | 0.0 | 19.8 | 29.0 | +9.3 |
| Kyren Williams RB · LA | 4 | 6.2 | 13.5 | 19.0 | 22.9 | +3.9 |
| Tetairoa McMillan WR · CAR | 4 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 18.9 | 19.1 | +0.2 |
| D'Andre Swift RB · CHI | 4 | 2.8 | 17.2 | 18.4 | 16.9 | -1.5 |
| Davante Adams WR · LA | 4 | 9.5 | 0.0 | 17.4 | 18.2 | +0.8 |
| Matthew Golden WR · GB | 4 | 9.2 | 0.2 | 17.2 | 14.5 | -2.7 |
| Chase Brown RB · CIN | 4 | 6.0 | 14.5 | 17.0 | 14.5 | -2.5 |
| Tee Higgins WR · CIN | 4 | 9.8 | 0.0 | 16.3 | 17.8 | +1.4 |
| Quinshon Judkins RB · CLE | 4 | 4.0 | 14.8 | 15.9 | 12.1 | -3.8 |
| DeVonta Smith WR · PHI | 3 | 9.0 | 0.0 | 15.8 | 16.2 | +0.4 |
| James Cook RB · BUF | 4 | 2.5 | 17.5 | 15.6 | 17.1 | +1.5 |
| Breece Hall RB · NYJ | 3 | 3.3 | 17.0 | 15.5 | 14.2 | -1.3 |
| Aaron Jones RB · MIN | 4 | 3.8 | 18.0 | 15.2 | 12.9 | -2.3 |
| Christian Watson WR · GB | 4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 15.2 | 19.3 | +4.1 |
| Sam LaPorta TE · DET | 4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 15.1 | 14.2 | -0.9 |
| Tony Pollard RB · TEN | 4 | 2.8 | 13.5 | 15.0 | 9.6 | -5.3 |
| DK Metcalf WR · PIT | 4 | 8.2 | 0.0 | 14.9 | 10.8 | -4.1 |
| Chuba Hubbard RB · CAR | 4 | 2.8 | 15.2 | 14.9 | 19.8 | +4.8 |
| Jaylen Warren RB · PIT | 4 | 5.0 | 13.8 | 14.5 | 14.6 | +0.0 |
| Devaughn Vele WR · NO | 4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 14.4 | 13.9 | -0.5 |
| Isaiah Likely TE · NYG | 4 | 8.8 | 0.0 | 14.2 | 13.2 | -1.0 |
| Terry McLaurin WR · WAS | 3 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 10.0 | -4.0 |
| Jalen Coker WR · CAR | 3 | 7.3 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 17.4 | +3.4 |
| Cam Skattebo RB · NYG | 4 | 2.2 | 17.0 | 13.6 | 11.1 | -2.6 |
| Kyle Monangai RB · CHI | 4 | 1.2 | 15.0 | 13.5 | 14.8 | +1.3 |
| Carnell Tate WR · TEN | 4 | 8.0 | 0.0 | 13.5 | 12.2 | -1.3 |
| Stefon Diggs WR · WAS | 4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 13.4 | 13.2 | -0.2 |
| Garrett Wilson WR · NYJ | 4 | 7.8 | 0.0 | 13.3 | 15.8 | +2.5 |
| De'Von Achane RB · MIA | 3 | 4.0 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 8.2 | -5.0 |
| Luther Burden III WR · CHI | 4 | 7.2 | 0.8 | 13.2 | 12.2 | -1.0 |
| Jeremiyah Love RB · ARI | 4 | 3.2 | 13.8 | 13.2 | 12.2 | -1.0 |
| Bucky Irving RB · TB | 4 | 3.8 | 14.0 | 12.9 | 12.3 | -0.6 |
| Juwan Johnson TE · NO | 4 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 12.8 | 15.6 | +2.8 |
| George Pickens WR · DAL | 4 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 12.8 | 10.1 | -2.7 |
| Parker Washington WR · JAX | 4 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 12.7 | 12.8 | +0.1 |
| Emanuel Wilson RB · SEA | 4 | 1.2 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 9.5 | -3.2 |
| Travis Etienne RB · NO | 3 | 4.3 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 9.6 | -2.9 |
| Zay Flowers WR · BAL | 3 | 7.3 | 0.3 | 12.4 | 22.4 | +10.0 |
| Bhayshul Tuten RB · JAX | 4 | 1.8 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 13.0 | +0.6 |
| Alvin Kamara RB · NO | 3 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 12.3 | 11.7 | -0.6 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB · NE | 4 | 4.0 | 11.0 | 12.3 | 10.8 | -1.5 |
| Malik Washington WR · MIA | 4 | 7.0 | 1.2 | 12.2 | 10.0 | -2.2 |
| RJ Harvey RB · DEN | 3 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 12.2 | 12.7 | +0.5 |
| Ja'Marr Chase WR · CIN | 4 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 12.1 | 15.1 | +3.0 |
| Omarion Hampton RB · LAC | 4 | 1.2 | 14.8 | 12.1 | 12.2 | +0.1 |
| Josh Downs WR · IND | 4 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 11.9 | 9.3 | -2.6 |
| Xavier Hutchinson WR · HOU | 4 | 6.5 | 0.5 | 11.6 | 7.2 | -4.3 |
| David Montgomery RB · HOU | 4 | 1.8 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 10.6 | -0.7 |
| KC Concepcion WR · CLE | 4 | 7.0 | 1.0 | 11.3 | 8.1 | -3.2 |
| Mike Evans WR · SF | 4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 12.6 | +1.4 |
| Malik Nabers WR · NYG | 4 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | -0.0 |
| Emeka Egbuka WR · TB | 4 | 6.0 | 0.2 | 11.1 | 9.0 | -2.1 |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · WAS | 4 | 1.8 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | -3.4 |
| Keenan Allen WR · IND | 3 | 6.7 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | -1.3 |
| Jameson Williams WR · DET | 4 | 6.2 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | -1.3 |
| Roman Wilson WR · PIT | 4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 10.9 | 11.2 | +0.3 |
| Tyler Warren TE · IND | 4 | 6.8 | 0.5 | 10.8 | 12.1 | +1.3 |
| Tyler Higbee TE · LA | 3 | 6.3 | 0.0 | 10.7 | 11.7 | +1.0 |
| T.J. Hockenson TE · MIN | 4 | 6.5 | 0.0 | 10.6 | 11.9 | +1.2 |
| Jaylen Waddle WR · DEN | 4 | 6.5 | 0.2 | 10.6 | 10.5 | -0.2 |
| Tucker Kraft TE · GB | 4 | 6.0 | 0.2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | -1.5 |
| Courtland Sutton WR · DEN | 4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 10.4 | 4.4 | -6.0 |
| Tre Tucker WR · LV | 4 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 10.4 | 11.1 | +0.7 |
| Dalton Schultz TE · HOU | 4 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 10.3 | 10.6 | +0.3 |
| Drake London WR · ATL | 4 | 6.2 | 0.5 | 10.2 | 14.3 | +4.2 |
| Denzel Boston WR · CLE | 4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 10.2 | 13.4 | +3.2 |
| George Kittle TE · SF | 4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 10.1 | 16.1 | +6.0 |
| Mike Gesicki TE · CIN | 3 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 14.8 | +4.8 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson WR · TEN | 4 | 5.8 | 0.2 | 10.0 | 10.1 | +0.1 |
| Xavier Worthy WR · KC | 4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | -1.6 |
| Mark Andrews TE · BAL | 4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 9.7 | -0.1 |
| J.K. Dobbins RB · DEN | 4 | 1.0 | 11.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | -4.7 |
| Harold Fannin Jr. TE · CLE | 4 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 12.6 | +2.6 |
| Justin Jefferson WR · MIN | 3 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 9.8 | 14.3 | +4.5 |
| Khalil Shakir WR · BUF | 4 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 7.9 | -1.8 |
| Romeo Doubs WR · NE | 4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 11.1 | +1.4 |
| Ryan Flournoy WR · DAL | 4 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 9.7 | 5.8 | -3.9 |
| MarShawn Lloyd RB · GB | 4 | 2.8 | 7.5 | 9.7 | 7.0 | -2.7 |
| Michael Mayer TE · LV | 4 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 9.6 | 10.7 | +1.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks WR · PHI | 4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 9.5 | 9.4 | -0.1 |
| Jordan Addison WR · MIN | 4 | 5.5 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 8.3 | -1.2 |
| Mack Hollins WR · NE | 4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 9.4 | 9.0 | -0.4 |
| Rachaad White RB · WAS | 3 | 3.0 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 10.0 | +0.7 |
| Jadarian Price RB · SEA | 3 | 2.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | -3.3 |
| DJ Moore WR · BUF | 4 | 5.0 | 0.5 | 9.1 | 9.1 | -0.0 |
| Rome Odunze WR · CHI | 4 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 9.3 | +0.2 |
| Tre Harris WR · LAC | 4 | 5.2 | 0.0 | 9.1 | 8.5 | -0.6 |
| Kalif Raymond WR · CHI | 4 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 12.2 | +3.2 |
| Rashee Rice WR · KC | 3 | 5.7 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 12.7 | +3.7 |
| Tyler Allgeier RB · ARI | 4 | 2.5 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 7.7 | -1.3 |
| Cade Otton TE · TB | 4 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 8.9 | 7.7 | -1.3 |
| Travis Kelce TE · KC | 4 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 8.8 | 13.2 | +4.4 |
| Saquon Barkley RB · PHI | 4 | 1.8 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 5.8 | -2.8 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. WR · SF | 4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 8.6 | 11.0 | +2.4 |
| Pat Freiermuth TE · PIT | 4 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 8.6 | 9.7 | +1.1 |
| Antonio Williams WR · WAS | 4 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | -0.8 |
| Colston Loveland TE · CHI | 4 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 5.0 | -3.2 |
| Quentin Johnston WR · LAC | 4 | 4.8 | 0.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | -3.7 |
| Dalton Kincaid TE · BUF | 4 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 8.2 | 12.0 | +3.8 |
| TreVeyon Henderson RB · NE | 3 | 1.0 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 7.2 | -0.9 |
| Darren Waller TE · CAR | 4 | 4.8 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 10.0 | +1.8 |
| Ladd McConkey WR · LAC | 4 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | +1.0 |
| Ollie Gordon II RB · MIA | 3 | 1.7 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 11.1 | +3.1 |
| Woody Marks RB · HOU | 4 | 2.2 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 7.7 | -0.2 |
| Isaac TeSlaa WR · DET | 4 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | -0.9 |
| DeMario Douglas WR · NE | 4 | 4.2 | 0.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | -3.5 |
| Brian Robinson RB · ATL | 4 | 0.8 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 12.1 | +4.5 |
| Ted Hurst III WR · TB | 4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 7.7 | 6.7 | -1.0 |
| Keaton Mitchell RB · LAC | 4 | 2.5 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 7.7 | +0.1 |
| Jared Wayne WR · HOU | 3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 7.6 | 3.5 | -4.1 |
| Tyquan Thornton WR · KC | 4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 11.2 | +3.7 |
| Brenton Strange TE · JAX | 4 | 4.5 | 0.0 | 7.5 | 9.2 | +1.7 |
| George Holani RB · SEA | 4 | 2.0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 4.8 | -2.7 |
| AJ Barner TE · SEA | 4 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 6.3 | -1.1 |
| Braelon Allen RB · NYJ | 4 | 1.8 | 8.2 | 7.4 | 6.5 | -0.9 |
| Keon Coleman WR · BUF | 4 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 7.4 | 10.4 | +3.0 |
| Kenyon Sadiq TE · NYJ | 4 | 4.5 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 9.7 | +2.4 |
| Rashod Bateman WR · BAL | 4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | +1.3 |
| Malachi Fields WR · NYG | 4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 7.1 | 6.7 | -0.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers WR · JAX | 4 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 7.0 | 10.4 | +3.4 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. WR · TB | 4 | 4.5 | 0.5 | 6.9 | 7.9 | +1.1 |
| Kendrick Bourne WR · ARI | 3 | 4.7 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | +0.8 |
| Jake Ferguson TE · DAL | 4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 9.6 | +2.7 |
| Terrance Ferguson TE · LA | 3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 6.8 | 6.4 | -0.4 |
| Kenny Gainwell RB · TB | 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 6.7 | 5.2 | -1.5 |
| Rashid Shaheed WR · SEA | 4 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 6.0 | -0.7 |
| Blake Corum RB · LA | 4 | 1.8 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 5.5 | -1.2 |
| Dyami Brown WR · WAS | 4 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 3.9 | -2.6 |
| Kendre Miller RB · NO | 3 | 2.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 5.6 | -0.9 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. WR · ARI | 4 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 6.5 | 4.9 | -1.6 |
| Greg Dulcich TE · MIA | 3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 6.4 | 6.0 | -0.4 |
| Oronde Gadsden II TE · LAC | 4 | 3.8 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 6.0 | -0.5 |
| Michael Pittman WR · PIT | 3 | 4.0 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 5.3 | -1.0 |
| Jalen Nailor WR · LV | 3 | 3.7 | 0.0 | 6.3 | 3.4 | -2.9 |
| Hunter Henry TE · NE | 4 | 3.8 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | +0.2 |
| Brian Thomas Jr. WR · JAX | 4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 6.4 | +0.3 |
| Konata Mumpfield WR · LA | 4 | 3.5 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | -0.3 |
| Dohnte Meyers WR · CIN | 4 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | +0.1 |
| Chris Bell WR · MIA | 4 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | -2.6 |
| Tank Bigsby RB · PHI | 4 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 4.8 | -1.3 |
| Bryce Lance WR · NO | 4 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 2.7 | -3.3 |
Does it actually work?
We tested it on the 2025 season. Expected points over weeks 1–8 predicted scoring in weeks 9–18 better than actual points did (correlation 0.715 vs 0.698). Players who scored 3+ points a game above their expected points dropped by 3.5 points a game afterward; players 3+ below rose by 1.9. Points are receiving and rushing PPR points only (no passing). Minimum 3 games and 6 expected points per game.